Q&A with Realpolitik
In this Q&A I will ask questions to realpolitik about the scenario in Korea and my thoughts on this in regards to bitcoin and uranium.
In this Q&A
asks talk about the recent coup in Korea. This collaboration occured because this focus on a huge geopolitical event also affects the value of uranium. The reason for this is that investors may buy bitcoin to protect themselves ftom geopolitical risk which increases demand for bitcoin, bitcoin miners use electricity which increase demand and the value of bitcoin.We highly reccomend following both
and . talks about how geopolotics based on a framework of incentives driving behaviour and has an interesting and unique thoughts on the situation in Korea in regards to martial law being declared. His pinned tweet on his twitter account called “mearsheimer fan” on twitter talks more about his views on the situation. Geopolitics can have huge implications for financial markets and uranium so we recommend checking him out on twitter and substack if you are seeing this through ’s substack. talks about the commodity uranium which he believes is extremely undervalued and set to soar. He believes a switch towards nuclear energy will cause the commoditt to soar as well as problems with increasing production. Financial markets can have huge implications for geopolitics so we recommend checking him out on substack and twitter. if you are seeing this through ’s substack. is asking the questions below and is answering them. Let us know ehat you think about this format in the comments below and like and subscribe.1)So what exactly happened on the day when Korea declared martial law, give us a brief timeline.
Realpolitik:This was during the last stages of setting up next year’s budget and the Democratic Party who hold the vast majority of seats, cut significant funding from all of President Yoon’s priorites like war on drugs and nuclear energy to name a few. They also declined to change the Espionage Act into prosecuting also Chinese spies not just North Koreans as recent incidents of their infiltration spiked. The last straw seems to be sabotaging his arms sales, which has been President Yoon’s biggest foreign policy accomplishments, by trying to force him to seek the National Assembly’s approval for each contract before signing.
Yoon’s patience was already at its limits for understandable reasons I wrote in the article pinned on my X account. 23 impeachments against his Cabinet, prosecutors, and more were issued in just 2 1/2 years of Yoon’s term. This is five times more than all the impeachments issued in modern ROK history combined before the Yoon Admin began. They also endlessly sent subpoenas against the First Lady and his party associates to build up public opinion to impeach him since the term began. They grabbed at whatever rationale they could find. The Democratic Party would try using a scandal then move onto find another one if it doesn’t build a strong enough rationale for impeachment. It’s been an endless cycle of this for two years.
So he immediately held a meeting with his cabinet and near midnight declared martial law. He argues that he intentionally did it very late when everyone is asleep to minimize the shock and economic damages to the market declaration of martial law can bring.
2)Was this a coup?
Realpolitik:That is up for debate as there’s legal arguments over the deployment of Special Forces on the National Assembly but my opinion is that it wasn’t. President Yoon disbanded the martial law as soon as the National Assembly told him to do so. So he followed the law. Had he doubled down, then it can be considered a coup.
Some like to argue that the soldiers deployed forcefully halted the National Assembly’s activities by taking over the building. However, they had no ammo inside their guns, which is why you can see footages of MPs fighting the troops without fear. The “barriers” they issued were also easily passed through by over 200 MPs and leaders of multiple parties. They entered the National Assembly building within 1-2 hours and conducted their vote to disband the martial law. I find it hard to believe this can be considered obstruction when the President if he wanted to could’ve done so much more to completely shut down the National Assembly.
3)Let's go back in time a bit what exactly was happening in Korea before this event occured?
Realpolitik:So the political feud between the Democratic Party and President Yoon was reaching its climax. The Democratic Party issued a series of more impeachments to completely paralyze the administration from doing anything on top of sabotaging all his key agendas in the budget. They impeached prosecutors directing the investigation of Democratic Party Leader Lee Jae Myung’s multiple criminal charges, the General Auditor, the Head of Media and Communications, and many more which total up to 23. Additionally, Lee Jae Myung was found guilty in one of his five court cases that could ban him from running for any political office the next 10 years if upheld by the Supreme Court.
So the Democratic Party countered by pressing further on the two scandals plaguing the Yoon Administration, one concerning his wife and another regarding the potential illegal activities with some political broker. The left argues these are very serious scandals concerning the First Lady and cites the impeachment of President Park in 2017, which was about illegally sharing power and secret documents with a private citizen. They’d like to say these scandals have strong connections to what happened 7 years ago which lead to the first removal of a sitting President in history. I personally believe these scandals are either unserious or hoaxes as multiple times DP operatives were caught concocting it themselves (several face investigations for it) and another supposedly occurred before the First Lady was even MARRIED to President Yoon (14 years ago!). Nonetheless, these attacks worked and Yoon’s approvals have also been at record lows of 17-19% as a result.
Both sides are under serious threats of collapsing and the political warfare escalated to the point of no return. There has been A LOT going on beneath the surface that lead to the declaration of this martial law.
4)Was he right to declare martial law?
Realpolitik:No it was a catastrophic mistake. It’s evident there’s no rationale or new information that President Yoon had the public didn’t know about to justify such drastic measures. It also from a tactical point of view is a total disaster as now the Democratic Party, who’s been trying to impeach President Yoon from Day One, now got the perfect excuse to do so.
An extremely small minority in favor of the martial law claim how there’s very suspicious activities surrounding the servers used by the National Election Commission. 100 more Special Forces than the National Assembly were sent there to obtain key components of their servers as they faced investigations over hackings, leaked information, and voter fraud. However, this issue has been discussed since 2020 and I have found no evidence these allegations are credible. I do find it suspicious that they’ve been refusing audits and investigations amidst scandals of corruption during their hiring procedures but there’s not enough to back this martial law.
Another reasoning offered by President Yoon is to send a “warning” to the Democratic Party for trying to paralyze his admin and create a lame-duck presidency when he still has 2 1/2 years left. This is understandable as the measures mentioned above DP is taking against Yoon are unprecedented and extremely over-the-line. However, this doesn’t justify martial law according to the Constitution.
5)What do you think of both of these parties and all of the main characters involved in Korean poliitcs today?
Realpolitik:I personally regard the Democratic Party as an existential threat to the future of South Korea and the People Power Party as a weak, feckless, and incompetent opposition against them. The Democratic Party is mainly a threat due to their leader, Lee Jae Myung, who took over it through Stalinist measures purging all who dissents against his authority. It’s essentially his personal property at this point. He’s under multiple indictments, investigations, and court cases at the moment. So he desperately uses the party to obstruct all investigations and remove President Yoon from office before he receives a conviction then goes to jail.
PPP Leader Han Dong Hoon in my view is very toothless and weak in the face of Lee’s such efforts. He’s also heavily driven by personal ambitions to become the next President and isn’t doing his job properly as the Party Leader to support President Yoon and Yongsan (Korea’s executive office) enact their policies.
President Yoon’s heart is in the right place and correctly assesses the threat level South Korea faces due to the Democratic Party accurately. However, he has horrible political instincts due to his complete lack of experience in this field and makes the worst decision, this martial law being the biggest one. Therefore, he is extremely unpopular so it makes it very difficult to defend him.
6)What do you see happening in the future with Korea specifically in regards to this situation? Will there be another case of martial law?
Realpolitik:There won’t be another martial law as those in the military and Defense Ministry openly said they have no intention to comply if it’s issued once more. The politics is going to become the most unstable it’s ever been since 2017, which was when President Park Geun Hye was successfully impeached and removed from office. Though the first impeachment vote failed, the Democratic Party will be issuing new ones until it passes. This political warfare doesn’t look to end. There’s talks of compromising with early resignation, reducing Yoon’s term, and forming a bipartisan cabinet. But I believe all such negotiations will fail as the Democratic Party won’t agree to any of them. It’s either impeachment or Yoon stays in office. South Korea will be extremely turbulent in the foreseeable future. If I have to predict, I believe the articles of impeachment will eventually pass at some point with some PPP Assembly members giving into public pressure and then it will be up to the Constitutional Courts to decide. I’m still unsure how they’d go as they’re majority conservative but they did remove President Park unanimously in 2017.
The interesting element in this case is that because the Democratic Party obstructed and blocked three of Yoon’s judge picks, there are only six justices in the Constitutional Court right now. This warrants a unanimous decision in order for the impeachment to be executed and remove President Yoon from office. It makes it especially interesting as the Court tends to sway heavily based on public opinion. However, if one judge opposes impeachment, then it automatically fails.
7)Do you see Korea continuing as a liberal democracy? or more like a fascist or communist one?
Realpolitik:I’m currently extremely pessimistic. I believe the Democratic Party will prevail in this Civil War at the end of the day. Public opinion is in their favor and the political terrain of South Korea is very much left wing. Lee Jae Myung not only has extremely radical views but also displays very authoritarian tendencies. So we’d see a Communist-esque type regime under his presidency. I believe then South Korea will enter the trajectory of Venezuela with Hugo Chavez though it’d take decades for them to collapse to such levels as a country.
Proponents of Lee Jae Myung argue he’s a pragmatist citing some of his moderate rhetoric on certain issues and bipartisan record as mayor + governor. He occasionally discusses tax cuts and business friendly policies time to time. However, almost all those cases have been proven to be opportunistic in nature to garner votes.
It’s debunked by the core tenets of the policies he advocates for like free housing and universal basic income. He cites the pandemic as proof of UBI’s success and completely disregards the surge in debt South Korea arguing nonsensically ROK will soon become a “reserve currency” like USD, which is a very ignorant and not true at all.
(Here I will talk a bit about how Koreas collapse could affect global stock markets, which things may have shortages etc.)
8)What do you think are the global consequences if Korea were to collapse?
Realpolitik:The implications would be very serious because I believe we’re entering a world in which the geopolitical epicenter has shifted from Europe to Asia. South Korea is one of the crucial power centers in this region as Japan, USA, North Korea, China, and Russia are heavily involved. If they were to collapse, China and North Korea without a doubt will take advantage of this to expand their influence and infiltrate US hegemony in East Asia. Then the competition between US and China would escalate beyond levels we can’t comprehend. It would be worse than what’s going in the South China Sea and Taiwan because securing East Asia is of much bigger strategic importance to the United States. World War 3, unlike the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, in my humble opionion would actually be a serious possibility.
Additionally, South Korea’s become a G13 country with multiple corprations having prominent world influence like Samsung and Hyundai. Their collapse would have huge shocks across chains connected to these industries which mainly consists of Western nations.
9)Which other countries will similiarly collapse? which others generally do not expected to do so or are at high risk of collapsing?
Realpolitik:I believe then Taiwan and Phillippines would be the next to fall in line because South Korea falling to such pro China influence as the Democratic Party is infested with them especially with Lee Jae Myung would lead to a domino. Japan would be under immediate danger but US will defend them at all costs. That would require diverting resources away from the Phillippines and Taiwan towards East Asia. Both countries share similar political turbulence of pro CCP forces fighting against pro Western ones. President Bongbong Marcos is fighting an intense battle against the pro China Duterte family. The DPP in Taiwan is also facing a crisis as the Assembly is governed by the KMT, who’re also pro China. Korea falling would give a huge boost to the pro China political factions in Taiwan and the Phillippines to prevail in their political battles.
This would also lead to Europe naturally becoming more vulnerable because US to counter the China threat will fully pivot to Asia abandoning them. Europe is already facing a serious crisis with their economy in turmoils and consequences of mass migration to name a few. The US leaving entirely would put the EU in severe danger as defense spending increases are inevitable and the continent becomes very fractured. They also are not politically capable enough at the moment to transition and adjust to such radicl changes.
10)Do you see the risk that the USA will collapse? If so, why?
Realpolitik:No I do not because for all of America’s faults, they’re still an extremely powerful country and unlike others can endure a couple more challenges. Additionally, with the election of Donald Trump, who I passionately support (so I’m very biased), I believe America will start turning the sinking ship around to success. He’s largely addressed all of America’s core issues in his Agenda 47 plan: staggering debt, trade deficits, declining US power on the world stage, crumbling infrastructure, complete reform of the administrative state, obesity epidemic, the border crisis, and the unraveling of America’s social fabric.
Now I don’t believe he’ll fix all of these nor come close as four years is a very short time. But his inner circle and cabinet appointments consist significantly of those who’re committed to executing the President’s agenda. Kash Patel, RFK Jr, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, and Russ Vought to name a few. This is entirely different from Trump’s first term where it was mostly staffed with GOP insiders as he had no connections in DC. His swift movements meeting with foreign officials and drafting plans to execute his platform starting day one of his inauguration shows a completely different energy from the disorganized nature we’ve witnessed 8 years ago. Additionally, the opposition (Democrats) have become completely demoralized with a total lack of energy to fight back to take Trump down like they used to. The stage is set and Trump is proving in my opinion this time he’s not all talk no action. I believe he will lay crucial foundations to address and fix the core problems America faces over the long run.
But I will say if South Korea is to collapse, which in my opinion would take roughly 10-20 years envisioning the worst case scenario I laid out occurs, it would be of deteriment risk to the United States due to the reasons I mentioned above. Since the ROK- US FTA in 2009, the economic cooperations between the two countries also grew substaintially to the point America is reliant on South Korea in certain elements not just the other way around as it always has been. So the damages will be huge. However, so long as Japan stays intact and doesn’t collapse, I believe America won’t be in some grave danger as South Korea’s strategic importance is big but limited. It is not existential.
11)What are some other issues Korea faces outside of it becoming a dictatorship?
Realpolitik:South Korea is currently at a turning point. Their period of growth and good times are over as they face crises from every single angle. It goes from to name a few record low birthrates, toxic education system, stagnant economy, the global decline of free trade, rise of China, growth of developing nations that increasingly compete/weaken South Korea’s key industries/ manufacturing base, polarized politics, and many more.
It is the result of failing to adjust into realities a developed nations goes through due to rapid economic growth and changing society. Koreans are incapable of distinguishing what elements of the West is something they should learn or stay away from. The cultural component is the biggest part of this. They with modernization incorpoate everything American society does from the Sexual Revolution, abortion, embrace of LGBT+, drug culture, feminism, and worst of all political correctness. These don’t just harm the social fabric and the Confucian norms that uphold morality in Korean culture but also accelerate the decline in birth rates.
The Thucydides Trap coming from the Rise of China also isn’t just a geopolitical but an economic one. China becoming the world’s factory are increasingly replacing Korea on their key industries in manufacturing and especially shipbuilding. However, they’re also South Korea’s biggest trading partner and there’s growing pressure from the US to begin process of decoupling, which will also require huge changes.
The biggest problem is that the Korean society shows no signs of changing at all and the political system offers no innovative solutions to address such massive issues. The behavior of Korean politics is still very much decades behind most modern Republics and displays an extremely lack of understanding for how balance of power (and rule of law) is supposed to be properly applied. The younger generation lost hope in the future and essentially gave up, which leads to higher suicide rates. Unlike the brand South Korea promotes to the rest of the world, the internal atmosphere is extremely dark and gloomy. I’d like to be optimistic but I genuinely see no path way out of this.